The law of unintended consequences in action

The law of unintended consequences in action:

The immorality of <http://www.times-standard.com/opinion/ci_8688750>
ethanol

Times-Standard

Article Launched: 03/25/2008 01:27:37 AM PDT

Henry L. Stuart

My daughter, who owns a feed and farm supply business in Bosque County,
Texas, 40 miles west of Waco, reports that corn is being grown in Texas
where corn has never grown before. This corn is destined for the ethanol
craze.

The agricultural programs supporting corn make it a sure winner for growers.
If the crop fails for any reason, federal crop insurance covers the losses.
If a bumper crop and a glut tend to depress prices, there is compensation
for that, too.

A corn grower cannot lose money. How would you like to be in a business that
can't lose money? And 51 cents per gallon federal subsidy for ethanol
production sweetens the deal, further distorting grain markets.

The new corn planting in Texas is replacing soybean planting creating a thin
supply of soybeans and escalating prices. Soybeans and corn, among other
things, are the favored feed for chickens, eggs and dairy production.
Cottonseed meal is the second choice. It is not in short supply, but it is
chasing the price of soybeans.

Before this crop cycle is completed, grocery shoppers can expect to see
breathtaking prices for eggs, chicken and dairy products. Beef and pork
won't be far behind, but there are some substitute feeds for them.

The ethanol farce behind all this is promoted by two misrepresentations by
the Bush White House.

The first misrepresentation is that imported oil is somehow a national
security issue. Baloney. Most of our imported oil comes from non-Arab
countries, especially Canada, Mexico and Venezuela. Where is the national
security issue in that? This administration is doing everything possible to
make the Venezuelan strongman, Hugo Chavez, mad at us, but he is losing
favor with his constituency. Perhaps the next administration will patch up
our relations with Venezuela. We need each other.

The second misrepresentation is that ethanol as fuel is less polluting than
petroleum products. Baloney. Pollution measured from the cornfield to the
tailpipe is not noticeably better than petroleum products measured from the
wellhead to the tailpipe.

The ethanol fiasco is sponsored by farm state legislators and their big
benefactors, the giant agribusinesses Conagra and Archer Daniels Midland,
which are deeply involved in corn and ethanol production while receiving
millions of dollars in agricultural subsidies and dispensing millions in
"campaign financing."

Besides the 51 cents per gallon subsidy afforded to ethanol production,
Congress also has enacted restraints on trade so that inexpensive ethanol
from Brazil cannot enter the U.S. market. Brazilians make ethanol in huge
quantities from spent sugar cane and other agricultural waste. This
restraint is called "free trade."

Ethanol from corn is perhaps the craziest thing that Congress has ever done,
but it fits in with the apparent functions of Congress. It seems that the
goal of most members of Congress is to get rich, and the role of most
members of Congress is to get re-elected.

Will Congress ever do anything about this mistaken policy? Probably not. It
will tinker with it around the edges, but powerful money interests now have
both feet in the trough, and the policy will never go away.

This bad policy will join the list of other bad, long-term polices that are
known to be wrong-headed, but nothing is done about them. I have in mind the
sugar program, the cotton program, Cuba and criminalization of marijuana.

To abolish a bad policy requires that someone must eat crow, and the longer
the policy has been in effect, the tougher the crow is to chew.

By the way -- efforts are afoot to make diesel fuel from soybean oil. Watch
out for this one.

Ethanol policy is so bad that it rises to a question of morality, but
Congress will not be bothered by that. Some of the people in the richest
nation in the world go to bed hungry every night

UK: More than four in ten maternity units turn away women in labour

This is what's in store for us under a national healthcare law. Politicians
deciding where and how we will receive our care. Not patients and health
care professionals, politicians. This is precisely how it occurs in the UK
and in the article below the true cost, anxiety, fear and safety, are being
paid by pregnant women.

More
<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id
=540248&in_page_id=1770> than four in ten maternity units turn away women
in labour

By CAROLINE GRANT - More
<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/dmsearch/overture.html?in_page_id=711&in_o
verture_ua=cat&in_start_number=0&in_restriction=byline&in_query=caroline%20g
rant&in_name=on&in_order_by=relevance+date> by this author > Last updated
at 11:16am on 20th March 2008

Traumatic: Pregnant women are being turned away from one in four NHS
hospitals and forced to give birth miles away

More than four in ten maternity units in NHS hospitals have turned away
women in labour and forced them to travel miles to give birth, according to
new figures.

The statistics show the true scale of the crisis facing maternity units
across the country, which could be putting the lives of mothers and babies
at risk.

Many mothers-to-be have been forced to travel miles away from home after the
doors were closed at their local NHS hospital.

The figures, from 103 of the 147 NHS trusts with maternity services, were
obtained by the Conservatives under the Freedom of Information Act.

They revealed that 42 per cent have admitted to turning away women in labour
on at least one occasion last year.

The figures show that nine per cent of the hospitals have turned women away
on more than 10 occasions - the worst unit shut their doors 39 times.

The Conservatives blamed this on the Government's closure of maternity
units, which still continues. Ministers are closing smaller units and
centralising services in larger hospitals.

There has already been an 18 per cent reduction in the number of beds in
maternity wards across England since Labour came to power in 1997.

Overall, the number of maternity beds per 100,000 people across the country
has dropped from 22 in 1997 to 18 in 2007.

Speaking last night, shadow health secretary Andrew Lansley, said: "Labour
is fixated with cutting smaller, local maternity services and concentrating
them on big units.

"But women don't want to have to travel miles to give birth. And they
certainly don't want to have to travel even further because they're turned
away by the hospital of the their choice."

Katherine Murphy of the Patients Association said: "It is disturbing to see
that so many healthcare trusts can turn away mothers at this crucial time.

"The greater the distance to travel, the greater the risk to mother and
baby. Being treated near to home is safer."

Mary Newburn, of the National Childbirth Trust, added: "These figures are
shocking. The unscheduled closure of maternity units has a major impact on
women and their partners.

"Parents lose all sense of control when the unit at which they have planned
to give birth has been closed. It's a major cause of anxiety."

A spokesman for the Department of Health said: "It is difficult to precisely
predict when a mother will go into labour and sometimes, at times of peak
demand, maternity units do temporarily divert women to nearby facilities.
"It is often only for a few hours and to ensure mother and baby can receive
the best care possible."

A spokeswoman for the Department of Health said: "It is difficult to
precisely predict when a mother will go into labour and sometimes, at times
of peak demand, maternity units do temporarily divert women to nearby
facilities.

"When this does happen it is often only for a few hours and to ensure mother
and baby can receive the best care possible."

Louise Silverton, deputy general secretary of the Royal College of Midwives,
said: "Size is not everything in maternity care, big does not mean better,
and we would question whether bigger maternity units means better care for
women and their babies.

"The key issue here is what the women want. Women want to know and develop a
relationship with their midwife and not feel as if they are on a production
line.

"Midwives want to be able to deliver the best possible individualised care
and not feel like they are working in a baby factory."

Bank customers queue round the block as cash machine pays out DOUBLE their money

People are sheep and given the opportunity they're willing to cheat and
steal. The thing that gets me is that they're willing to do it in large
groups. To me this ranks only a few notches below a riotous mob smashing
store fronts and looting the stores.

I don't know HOW many times I've returned money that wasn't mine when a
cashier has made change for me. Why? Because it's the morally RIGHT thing
to do. These people chose to call friends so that they could come down and
get 'free' money. It never occurs to people that everything in life has a
cost associated with it. As economists say 'there's no such thing as a free
lunch'. The banks will recover their money one way or another.

Regardless of how much you feel the banks are ripping you off this is just
wrong. And in the States it is illegal.

Just as a comparison in the U.S., consider a NY man who had millions of
dollars that was wrongly deposited into his account. It was the banks
error, but he spent it. He's now facing charges of grand larceny in New
York:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ny_crime/2008/02/20/2008-02-20_brooklyn_man_
busted_for_draining_bank_ac-1.html

Here's the story that sparked my rant:

Bank
<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id
=539609&in_page_id=1770> customers queue round the block as cash machine
pays out DOUBLE their money

Last updated at 13:27pm on 19th March 2008

Bank customers couldn't believe their luck when a cash machine began to
double the money they requested.

Word quickly spread and from late yesterday afternoon to 8pm a large queue
lined up to use the machine outside a Sainsbury's Local store in Hull, east
Yorks.

The faulty machine finally ran out of notes at about 8pm.

Scroll down for more...

Hull cash machine

Two for one: Customers queue outside the cash machine in Hull last night
which paid out twice the amount requested before running out of cash

It is also believed that a number of cash machines outside supermarkets in
Hull also experienced similar problems.

One man who did not wish to be named said: "I was driving past when I saw a
huge queue of about 30 people at the cash machine.

"I parked up and learned that it was paying out double. I joined the queue
and when I finally got to the front I drew out £200 but it gave me £400.

"The statement said I only drew out £200. I don't know whether I will have
to pay it back."

One unlucky punter was taxi driver David Mellors. The father of seven, 37,
arrived at 7pm but by the time he got to the front, it ran out of money.

"I was disappointed. It was the ultimate buy one get one free sale and I
missed out," he said.

A spokesman for Sainsbury's said it had been alerted to the problem at about
8pm last night.

"We do not know how much the machine paid out at the moment but the matter
is under investigation" she said.

One eye witness said: "It was really funny seeing all those people trying to
get one over on the banks.

"They were walking away with huge wads of cash and big smiles on their
faces.

"They were ringing their mates and telling them to get down quickly. It
makes up for all the banks charges I guess. I hope they don't have to pay it
back."

Bank customers queue round the block as cash machine pays out DOUBLE their money

People are sheep and given the opportunity they're willing to cheat and
steal. The thing that gets me is that they're willing to do it in large
groups. To me this ranks only a few notches below a riotous mob smashing
store fronts and looting the stores.

I don't know HOW many times I've returned money that wasn't mine when a
cashier has made change for me. Why? Because it's the morally RIGHT thing
to do. These people chose to call friends so that they could come down and
get 'free' money. It never occurs to people that everything in life has a
cost associated with it. As economists say 'there's no such thing as a free
lunch'. The banks will recover their money one way or another.

Regardless of how much you feel the banks are ripping you off this is just
wrong. And in the States it is illegal.

Just as a comparison in the U.S., consider a NY man who had millions of
dollars that was wrongly deposited into his account. It was the banks
error, but he spent it. He's now facing charges of grand larceny in New
York:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ny_crime/2008/02/20/2008-02-20_brooklyn_man_
busted_for_draining_bank_ac-1.html

Here's the story that sparked my rant:

Bank
<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id
=539609&in_page_id=1770> customers queue round the block as cash machine
pays out DOUBLE their money

Last updated at 13:27pm on 19th March 2008

Bank customers couldn't believe their luck when a cash machine began to
double the money they requested.

Word quickly spread and from late yesterday afternoon to 8pm a large queue
lined up to use the machine outside a Sainsbury's Local store in Hull, east
Yorks.

The faulty machine finally ran out of notes at about 8pm.

Scroll down for more...

Hull cash machine

Two for one: Customers queue outside the cash machine in Hull last night
which paid out twice the amount requested before running out of cash

It is also believed that a number of cash machines outside supermarkets in
Hull also experienced similar problems.

One man who did not wish to be named said: "I was driving past when I saw a
huge queue of about 30 people at the cash machine.

"I parked up and learned that it was paying out double. I joined the queue
and when I finally got to the front I drew out £200 but it gave me £400.

"The statement said I only drew out £200. I don't know whether I will have
to pay it back."

One unlucky punter was taxi driver David Mellors. The father of seven, 37,
arrived at 7pm but by the time he got to the front, it ran out of money.

"I was disappointed. It was the ultimate buy one get one free sale and I
missed out," he said.

A spokesman for Sainsbury's said it had been alerted to the problem at about
8pm last night.

"We do not know how much the machine paid out at the moment but the matter
is under investigation" she said.

One eye witness said: "It was really funny seeing all those people trying to
get one over on the banks.

"They were walking away with huge wads of cash and big smiles on their
faces.

"They were ringing their mates and telling them to get down quickly. It
makes up for all the banks charges I guess. I hope they don't have to pay it
back."

The Osborne 1 luggable computer

For some of us our earliest memories of computers are Commodore-128's and
Tandy's... maybe and Apple II or IIe? But what is your earliest memory of a
'portable' computer?

Recently some colleagues (who have twenty years on me) were discussing
'luggable' computers, the first truly portable computers and the predecessor
to the laptop. I believe I sparked the conversation with a comment about my
computer bag. I currently carry two laptops, two power supplies, a 500GB
external hard drive and countless USB peripherals. My computer bag weighs
between 20-25 lbs.

The Osborne <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_1> 1, by comparison,
weighed 23.5 lbs. So 27 years later, for the same weight I have almost 2000
times the computing power at my disposal, plus the convenience of a number
of peripheral devices that were unimaginable in 1981.

If I compare the stronger laptop I carry against the Osborne 1, here's how
the comparison breaks down:

Osborne 1

Dell XPS M1710

Year

1981

2007

Disk Drives

Dual 5¼-inch, single-sided 40 track floppy disk drives ("dual density"
upgrade available)

1 x 100GB @ 2700 RPM; 1 X DVD R/RW

CPU

4 MHz Z80 CPU

Intel Core 2 Duo Processor T7600 (2.33GHz/4MB)

Memory

65 kilobytes main memory

4GB SDRAM (DIMM)

Screen

5-inch, 52 character × 24 line monochrome CRT display

17-inch LCD; 512MB NVIDIA GeForce Graphics Card

Ports

IEEE-488 port configurable as a Parallel printer port

6x USB 2.0; 1 x Firewire; CRT/HD out; 1 x Expansion Port; 1 X Flash Card
Port

Comms

RS-232 compatible 1200 or 300 baud Serial port for use with external modems
or serial printers

1 X Internal Wireless & Bluetooth Card; 1 x Ethernet & Phone Card (1 port
each)

Here are some photos and descriptions of the first luggables, courtesy of
Tech Republic:

<http://content.techrepublic.com.com/2347-10877_11-191880-191885.html?seq=5>
Keyboard

These screens were only 5" and monochrome. Notice the dual 5 ¼" floppy
drives! That's one drive for applications and one for data. SWEET!

<http://content.techrepublic.com.com/2347-10877_11-191880-191886.html?seq=6>
Familiar ports

Ah, serial ports, long before USB!

<http://content.techrepublic.com.com/2347-10877_11-191880-191887.html?seq=7>
A battery -- that's innovation

It was the first to have a battery pack accessory!

<http://content.techrepublic.com.com/2347-10877_11-191880-191892.html?seq=12
> Wordstar

This one still works... I've burned through several laptops since the mid
90's that certainly don't work anymore. What quality!

More photos can be viewed here:
http://content.techrepublic.com.com/2346-10877_11-191880-5.html

Your call is important to us

Keep this in mind the next time you get a phone call from a vendor. J

/CB

Monitor

Your <http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10789441&fsrc=RSS>
call is important to us

Mar 6th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Software: Making call centres run smoothly involves an ever-greater
dependency on technological trickery behind the scenes

IT IS a familiar litany. Your call is important to us. An operator will be
with you as soon as possible. Your call may be recorded for quality-control
and training purposes. These phrases are familiar because the use of call
centres has become so commonplace: in 2007 companies worldwide spent some
$280 billion on outsourced call-centre services, according to NASSCOM, a
call-centre trade group in Delhi. Costs are rising (they jumped 30% last
year in India), customers are becoming more demanding, and competition is
increasing. So the companies that operate call centres are adopting new
software to monitor and improve performance.

One trick, which can shave seconds off each call, is to take into account
"context data"-such as the caller's location, the local weather, the time of
day and records of their recent transactions-when routing a call. Cisco, an
American communications-equipment provider, recently upgraded its
call-centre software to provide this feature, which is popular with
financial institutions. The caller can then be put through to an agent who
is experienced at handling a particular sort of transaction.

Aneesh Nair, head of the Academia, a call-centre training school in
Bangalore, says context data may also include information gleaned from news
reports. Storms, sporting events and transport strikes, for example, can
affect callers' moods and purchasing dispositions, he says, and can be used
to provide tips to agents. "Demographic mapping" features provide additional
information about the products callers are most likely to buy based upon
their location, time of call, and whether they are calling from a land-line
or a mobile phone.

The next step, beyond analysing the context around a call, is to examine the
call itself, using "word spotting" software to evaluate the performance of
the agent and the reaction of the caller. There is strong demand for
quality-control software, says Donna Fluss of DMG Consulting, a specialist
consultancy based in West Orange, New Jersey, because call-centre managers
are only able to listen to a few calls per agent each month. Word-spotting
software allows managers to monitor agents much more closely.

As word-spotting systems spread, call-centre training schools have started
coaching students in gaming the system so they look good under the
additional scrutiny. JTS Institute, a cramped school in a bustling Bangalore
neighbourhood, now shows students how to "prompt" callers with questions and
statements that elicit the replies that word-spotting software, and
call-centre managers, are looking for, such as "I understand" and "that's
great". In addition, says Basheer Shaik, the head trainer, a good accent is
even more important now that employers can see tallies of how many times a
particular agent is asked to "repeat that". Students are encouraged to
practise English even "with their parents who hardly understand English", he
says.

The market for word-spotting systems is "gaining a lot of momentum," says
Barak Eilam, general manager of NICE, a provider of word-spotting software
based in Ra'anana, Israel. Its latest systems are designed to foil prompting
by taking into account the context of high-scoring phrases. A caller who
says "wonderful" shortly after the agent has said it, for example, may have
been prompted.

As well as being used to evaluate the performance of agents, Mr Eilam says,
word-spotting systems can also provide valuable insights about what callers
think about a particular product, and how their vocabulary changes in
response to advertising campaigns, recalls and publicity stunts. In one case
word-spotting technology quickly alerted a refrigerator-maker to a design
flaw after the words "tipped", "top-heavy" and "fell" were uttered to
call-centre agents in different countries just half a dozen times.

Much of India's call-centre industry, which employs roughly 300,000 agents,
is located outside the ring road that encircles Bangalore, in a string of
smart new business parks with tidy lawns and private security. Were it not
for the stray dogs, a visitor could be forgiven for mistaking the area for
Silicon Valley. Costs, of course, are much lower, but business leaders are
aware of a growing threat from call centres in other countries such as the
Philippines. Vasudevan Bharathwaj of 24/7 Customer, a call centre in
Bangalore where 5,000 agents handle calls for 30 companies, explains that
firms like his must innovate and develop intellectual property for sale to
other firms.

Listening to the customer

Accordingly, programmers at 24/7 Customer have developed "neurolinguistic"
software that does not just spot which words callers use-it tries to provide
agents with insights into their psychology. Callers' words and cadences are
analysed to create a profile that helps agents adjust their vocabulary and
behaviour to improve their rapport. Agents receive on-screen tips on which
phrases, sales pitches and conflict-resolution tricks are most likely to
resonate. For example, callers who use "kinesthetic" terms such as "digging
through the website" will be answered slowly with phrases suggesting body
movement: "Please hold while I pull up more information."

Similarly, Cisco's voice-analysis system monitors parameters including
volume, cadence, tone, pitch and inflection, and then sorts callers into six
personality types to help agents fine-tune call handling. "It's the bleeding
edge," says Laurent Philonenko, vice-president of Cisco's call-centre
business in San Jose, California. Ms Fluss says "tremendous innovation" is
under way in this area, and sales of caller-profiling systems will increase
by 70% this year compared with 2007.

CUNA Mutual Group, a credit-union insurer in Madison, Wisconsin, installed
such a system last year. Rick Roy of CUNA says it provides agents, who
receive tips and script changes automatically during calls, with "another
set of ears". The same software can also be used for quality control, says
Mr Eilam, by scoring agents depending on the way the caller's emotional
state changes over the course of the call. Supervisors at many companies, he
says, retain customers by phoning back those who exhibit "negative
excitement" at the end of a call.

Some in the industry worry that voice analysis smacks of Big Brother, and
prefer to keep quiet about it. Callers are usually told only that their call
may be recorded for quality-control purposes. The JTS Institute does not
mention the technology to its students. "Too much information", says Mr
Shaik, "is not good for them."

The Vatican announces 7 NEW flavors of sin!

There's an interesting blog, Indexed <http://www.indexed.blogspot.com/> ,
that I subscribe to where the lady who runs it simply posts a new chart or
diagram each day. Some of them are really clever and interesting. I found
this one amusing:

[card1402.JPG]